今年第三季度天然橡胶价格不大可能低于每公斤4美元

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Natural rubber prices are unlikely to fall below $4 a kilogram in the third quarter this year, International Rubber Consortium's acting chief executive Yium Tavarolit said Tuesday (June 14).
Yium said despite a slowdown in top consumers China and India , their demand requirements will be "steady."
. s9 o+ v/ w' R5 J$ XDemand from emerging markets such as the Middle East, Brazil and Russia will also support prices, he added.
On the supply side, erratic rain in largest producer Thailand has been disrupting tapping and slowing supplies after the low-output wintering season.
! P8 @" \: g1 K! GRubber output is rising in Malaysia and Indonesia , but the unsteady increase hasn't been able to compensate for a slower rate of growth in Thai supply, Yium said in his latest weekly commentary.
The three IRCo member-countries account for about 70% of global natural rubber output.
; f3 n. w/ H( SThe rubber market will likely be subdued the way it is this quarter, due to U.S. economic uncertainty, euro-zone debt problems and further monetary tightening in China , he said.
He said a supply shortfall in the second half is unlikely "if there are no natural disasters" affecting production.
; s( ~6 i; d, J- r4 d. vGlobal natural rubber production is expected to hit 9.9 million metric tons this year, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in its latest report. ANRPC members account for about 92% of global natural rubber output.
周二（6月14日）国际橡胶协会行政长官Yium Tavarolit表示：今年第三季度天然橡胶价格不大可能低于每公斤4美元。
Yium说，尽管中国和印度的消费放缓，但是他们的需求要求将会维持“稳定”。
# \" D4 `) R. {( H% |. J中东，巴西和俄罗斯等新兴市场的需求也会对天然橡胶的价格起支持作用，他补充说。
4 y5 c. N1 d+ L: w" l1 Q在供应方面，泰国（最大的生产者）的不稳定降雨已经破坏了割胶，减缓了越冬季节后的供应。
马来西亚和印尼橡胶产量正在上升，但不稳定的增长未能弥补泰国的供应增长速度缓慢的损失，Yium在他最新的每周评论中说。
! m9 g5 A9 \% p2 @- y# P( K以上3个IRCo组织成员占了全球产量的70%。
本季度橡胶市场可能会受到抑制，由于美国经济的不确定性，欧元区债务问题，以及中国进一步在收紧货币政策，他说。
0 c" B3 N  ]8 `: p6 a7 i+ [6 t2 Y他说如果没有“自然灾害”影响生产的话，下半年供应短缺的可能性不大。
天然橡胶生产国协会在其最新报告中表示：全球天然橡胶产量预计将达到990万公吨， ANRPC成员天然橡胶产量约占全球的92％。