RMA lowers tire shipment forecast

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RMA lowers tire shipment forecast

Monday, December 5, 2011
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Washington, DC. - The Rubber Manufacturers Association lowered its 2011 tire shipment forecast to 287 million total units, which represents a nearly 1% increase or approximately two million units more than 2010. This is a result of downward revisions in year-end economic growth in the U.S. economy. For 2012, the forecast remains guardedly optimistic as U.S. economic growth is anticipated to remain slow. As such, overall tire shipments are forecasted to increase by more than 2% reaching a total of over 290 million total units. Persistently high fuel costs, a decrease in miles driven by consumers plus moderating growth in the commercial replacement tire sector have led to a restrained outlook. RMA’s Tire Market Analysis Committee 2011 forecast for key categories include: Replacement passenger tire: The forecast for this category was revised to show a decrease of approximately 2% for 2011. The decrease represents a drop of approximately four million units for 2011 with total passenger replacement units reaching approximately 196 million units. For 2012, less than 1% growth is forecasted, representing an approximate one million unit increase. Original equipment (OE) passenger tires: OE tire shipments were revised slightly lower to approximately 35 million units, a 5.4% increase over 2010, as a result of decreased vehicle production related to supply chain disruptions due to the natural disasters in both Japan and Thailand. The forecast for 2012 is for an approximate 13% increase, to nearly 40 million OE units, as available credit and attractive vehicle prices are expected to drive vehicle sales. Original equipment light truck (LT) tires: This category is forecasted to experience a nearly 15% increase in 2011 to approximately 4.2 million units. However, a 7% decrease, or approximately 300,000 units for a total of 3.9 million units, is forecasted for 2012. Original equipment medium/wide-base/heavy on-highway commercial truck tires: The forecast for commercial OE tire shipments was revised upward for 2011 to approximately 54%, reaching nearly five million total units. For 2012, the forecast is for an additional nearly 10%. Replacement light truck tire: This category, represented by small commercial vehicle market, mainly “class 3” trucks, was revised downward to an approximate 2% increase in 2011, a growth of approximately 700,000 units or nearly 29 million total units. For 2012, no further increase is anticipated as the economy is expected to remain weak. Replacement medium/wide-base/heavy on-highway commercial truck tires: The forecast for this market will remains strong for 2011, anticipated to increase by approximately 1.5 million units in 2011 to nearly 17 million units. For 2012, an additional 800,000 units are anticipated.

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